Predictive scale of mortality due to cardiovascular affection in elderly from Santiago de Cuba municipality
Keywords:
elderly, risk factors, cardiovascular disease, mortality, prediction scale.Abstract
Introduction: In the context of healthy aging, the prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a challenge.
Objective: To design a scale, based on identified risk factors, for predicting mortality due to cardiovascular affection in elderly.
Methods: An analytic, observational and retrospective case-control study was carried out that included 536 elderly over 60 years, belonging to 3 health areas (Ramón López Peña, Municipal and 28 de Septiembre polyclinics) from Santiago de Cuba municipality, during 2021. The scale was derived from the analysis of binary logistical regression of the identified cardiovascular risk factors.
Results: As the score of the scale increased, the percentage of dead patients increased. The area under the curve was of 0.836 (p = 0.000) and in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was obtained p = 1.000.
Conclusions: The proposed scale allowed predicting mortality due to cardiovascular affection in elderly, with very good discrimination capacity and calibration.
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References
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2. Mostaza JM, Pintó X, Armario P, Masana L, Real JT, Valdivielso P, et al. Estándares SEA 2022 para el control global del riesgo cardiovascular. Clínica e Investigación en Arteriosclerosis. 2022 [citado 16/02/2022];34(3):130-79. Disponible en: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0214916821001571
3. Forman DE, Maurer MS, Boyd C, Brindis R, Salive ME, Horne FF, et al. Multimorbidity in Older Adults with Cardiovascular Disease. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2018 [citado 18/05/2022];71(19):2149-61. Disponible en: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6028235/
4. Paramio Rodríguez A, Aguilera García LL, Carrazana Garcés E, Hernández Navas M. Riesgo cardiovascular global en tres casas de abuelos del municipio Boyeros. Rev Cuban Med Gen Integr. 2021 [citado 20/02/2022];37(4). Disponible en: https://revmgi.sld.cu/index.php/mgi/article/view/1417/503
5. Van Bussel EF, Hoevenaar Blom MP, Pobretvliet RKE, Gussekloo J, Van Dalen JW, Van Gool WA, et al. Predictive value of traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease in older people: A systematic review. Preventive Med. 2020 [citado 12/04/2022];132:105986. Disponible en: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743520300104?via%3Dihub
6. Chang Calderin O, Figueredo Villa K, Murillo Pulgar TJ. Hipercolesterolemia en el adulto mayor. Rev Cuban Med Gen Integr. 2020 [citado 24/08/2022];36(3). Disponible en: https://revmgi.sld.cu/index.php/mgi/article/view/1211/367
7. Sperrin M, Martin GP, Pate A, Van Staa T, Peek N, Buchan I. Using marginal structural models to adjust for treatment drop-in when developing clinical prediction models. Stat Med. 2018 [citado 01/04/2022];37(28):4142-54. Disponible en: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6282523
8. Wong ND, Budoff MJ, Ferdinand K, Graham IM, Michos ED, Reddy T, et al. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk assessment: An American Society for Preventive Cardiology clinical practice statement. Am J Prev Cardiol. 2022 [citado 26/04/2022];10:100335. Disponible en: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8943256
9. Maciel de Lima AP, Schneider BC, Bertoldi AD, Tomasi E, Gonzalez MC, Demarco FF, et al. NCD behavioral risk factors and mortality among older adults in Brazil. Clin Nutr ESPEN. 2021 [citado 17/03/2022];45:462-8. Disponible en: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2405457721002436
10. Lind L, Sundstrom J, Arnlov J, Lampa E. Impact of aging on the strength of cardiovascular risk factors: a longitudinal study over 40 years. J Am Heart Assoc. 2018 [citado 02/03/2022];7(1):e007061. Disponible en: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5778963/
11. Triantafyllou A, Douma S. Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly individuals without overt CVD disease. Could traditional risk factors fit in all ages? JCH. 2019 [citado 16/03/2022];21(8):1153-4. Disponible en: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jch.13616
12. Veronese N. Frailty and cardiovascular diseases research into an elderly population. Berlín: Springer Nature; 2020.
13. Schmidt M, Eckardt R, Altmeppen S, Klaus-Dieter Wernecke, Claudia Spies. Functional impairment prior to major non-cardiac surgery is associated with mortality within one year in elderly patients with gastrointestinal, gynaecological and urogenital cancer: A prospective observational cohort study. J Geriatr Oncol. 2018; 9(1):53-9.
14. Eurelings LSM, Van Dalen JW, Ter Riet G, Moll van Charante EP, Richard E, Van Goll WA, et al. Apathy and depressive symptoms in older people and incident myocardial infarction, stroke, and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data. Clin Epidemiol. 2018 [citado 20/01/2023];10:363-79. Disponible en: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5894652/
15. Rodríguez AA, Murillo AA, Rivera RJ, Montalván EE, Duarte KG, Urrutia SA, et al. Validez de los métodos de predicción para riesgo cardiovascular en América Latina: revisión bibliográfica. Rev Méd Hondur. 2017 [citado 25/04/2022];85(1-2):51-5. Disponible en: http://www.bvs.hn/RMH/pdf/2017/pdf/Vol85-1-2-2017-15.pdf
16. Visseren FLJ, Mach F, Smulders YM, Carballo D, Koskinas KC, Bäck M, et al. 2021 ESC Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice. Eur Heart J. 2021;42(34):3227-337.
17. Gabriel R, Muñiz J, Vega S, Moral I, Pérez Castro TR, Rodriguez Salvanés F, et al. Riesgo cardiovascular en la población anciana española. Escala de riesgo EPICARDIAN. Rev Clin Esp. 2022 [citado 16/02/2022];222(1):13-21. Disponible en: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014256521001119
18. Neumann JT, Thao LTP, Callander E, Carr PR, Qaderi V, Nelson MR, et al. A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data. LANCET. 2022 [citado 27/03/2022];3(2):89-97. Disponible en: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2666-7568%2821%2900308-1
19. SCORE2-OP working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration. SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions. Eur Heart J. 2021 [citado 20/09/2022];42(25):2455-67. Disponible en: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8248997
20. Verweij L, Peters RJG, Scholte op Reimer WJM, Matthijs Boekholdt S, Luben RM, Wareham NJ, et al. Validation of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation-Older Persons (SCORE-OP) in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study. Int J Cardiol. 2019 [citado 20/09/2022];293:226-30. Disponible en: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167527319304814
Published
2023-07-25
How to Cite
1.
Hierrezuelo Rojas N, Caballero GDR, Magdariaga AH, Bonal Ruiz R, Acosta Lee C. Predictive scale of mortality due to cardiovascular affection in elderly from Santiago de Cuba municipality. MEDISAN [Internet]. 2023 Jul. 25 [cited 2025 Jul. 26];27(4):e4415. Available from: https://medisan.sld.cu/index.php/san/article/view/4415
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